Express Entry Next Draw Prediction: Trend Analysis

Express-Entry-Next-Draw-Prediction

The next Express Entry should be on 31 July 2024, as the latest one was on 18 July. This is because the draws are following a new pattern. Since IRCC held a category-based draw (French language proficiency) on 18 July, Thursday (just like we predicted), the next draw would likely be a general one. IRCC will most likely conduct that one on 31 July.

IRCC does not conduct Express Entry draws on any specific dates since there are no such anticipated dates. Also, keep in mind that this is just an expert’s estimation and no such official dates are published. 

In the beginning, IRCC used to hold draws every second Wednesday. When the draws used to come out this way, it was way easier to predict the next round. But such has not been the case anymore. 

Table of Contents

Download Free Immigration and PR Guide PDF

New Trend of Express Entry Draws

Lately, Express Entry draws have been all over the place. IRCC is hardly following any pattern or trend. However, there’s one thing to note here, the draws are still being held on days like Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

The latest Express Entry draws of July are:

DateRound typeInvitations issuedCRS cut-off
8-Jul-2024French language proficiency3,700420
5-Jul-2024Healthcare occupations3,750445
4-Jul-2024Trade occupations1,800436
2-Jul-2024Provincial Nominee Program920739

Express Entry Draw Trend: From 1st Feb to 24 Apr 2024

IRCC followed a trend of conducting EE draws, from 1st of February to 24th Apr. If you take a look at the draws conducted on 11, 23, and 24 April, you’ll see the gap in the dates similar to this: 1 day: 12 days: 1 day. 

Another major pattern to note here is that draws have been mostly conducted on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. Hence, the next one can be expected to come out on 8th March, Monday. 

DayDateRound typeInvitations issuedCRS cut-off
Wednesday24-Apr-2024French language proficiency 1,400410
Tuesday23-Apr-2024General2,095529
Thursday11-Apr-2024STEM occupations4,500491
Wednesday10-Apr-2024General1,280549
Tuesday26-Mar-2024French language proficiency 1,500388
Monday25-Mar-2024General1,980524
Wednesday13-Mar-2024Transport occupations975430
Tuesday12-Mar-2024General2,850525
Thursday29-Feb-2024French language proficiency 2,500336
Wednesday28-Feb-2024General1,470534
Friday16-Feb-2024Agriculture and agri-food occupations 150437
Wednesday14-Feb-2024Healthcare occupations 3,500422
Tuesday13-Feb-2024General1,490535
Thursday1-Feb-2024French language proficiency 7,000365

Which type of draw will be held next?

The next Express Entry draw would most likely be a category-based selection. This is because lately, IRCC has been focusing on conducting either General rounds of invitations or category-based. The Canadian government has been prioritizing inviting candidates in categories that are in need of workers. 

The last time IRCC conducted a program-specific draw was on 17 July 2023. 6,300 candidates were selected from the Canadian Experience Class (CEC). 

There are three types of rounds of invitations:

  1. General 
  2. Program-specific
  3. Category-based 

Under a General draw, eligible candidates are selected from the Federal Skilled Worker Program(FSWP), Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP), and Canadian Experience Class (CEC). 

As the name suggests, under a program-specific draw, candidates are invited from a particular program only. 

As for the category-based draw, candidates must be eligible under one of the three programs operated under the Express Entry system and for the category that is selected under that particular draw. 

Introduction of the Category-based Express Entry Draws

To cope with the changing economy and skilled labor needs, Canada realized that some of its sectors were in rather desperate need of workers than others. Thus, on 31 May 2023, the then-Canadian immigration minister, Sean Fraser, announced the launch of Category-based Express Entry draws

6 categories were formed after deliberating which industries in Canada were facing the worst labor shortages. These were:

  • French-language proficiency
  • Healthcare occupations
  • STEM occupations
  • Trade occupations
  • Transport occupations
  • Agriculture and agri-food occupations

IRCC decided on these categories after conducting thorough labor market research and consulting with various stakeholders. It was also decided that along with usual Express Entry draws, category-based draws would also take place to invite candidates in certain occupations and help fight workforce shortage. 

Express Entry Draw Pattern

2024 Express Entry Draws

DayDateRound typeInvitations issuedCRS Cut-off
Thursday18-Jul-2024French Language Proficiency1,800400
Wednesday17-Jul-2024Canadian Experience Class6,300515
Tuesday16-Jul-2024Provincial Nominee Program1,391670
Monday08-Jul-2024French Language Proficiency3,700420
Friday05-Jul-2024Healthcare Occupations 3,750445
Thursday04-Jul-2024Trade Occupations1,800436
Tuesday02-Jul-2024Provincial Nominee Program920793
Wednesday19-June-2024Provincial Nominee Program1,499663
Friday31-May-2024Canadian Experience Class3,000522
Thursday30-May-2024Provincial Nominee Program2,985676
Wednesday24-Apr-2024French Language Proficiency1,400410
Tuesday23-Apr-2024General2,095529
Thursday11-Apr-2024STEM occupations4,500491
Wednesday10-Apr-2024General1,280549
Tuesday26-Mar-2024French language proficiency1,500388
Monday25-Mar-2024General1,980524
Wednesday13-Mar-2024Transport Occupations975430
Tuesday12-Mar-2024General2,850525
Thursday29-Feb-2024French language proficiency 2,500336
Wednesday28-Feb-2024General1,470534
Friday16-Feb-2024Agriculture and agri-food occupations150437
Wednesday14-Feb-2024Healthcare occupations 3,500422
Tuesday13-Feb-2024General1,490535
Thursday1-Feb-2024French language proficiency 7,000365
Wednesday31-Jan-2024General730541
Tuesday23-Jan-2024General1,040543
Wednesday10-Jan-2024General1,510546


As you can see, these draws do not follow any pattern whatsoever. They are held on a random basis and thus, this factor makes it very hard to predict when the next EE draw would be. However, one thing was for sure, IRCC priorities holding category-based draws. 

2023 Express Entry Draws

2023-Express-Entry-Draws


Since 28th June 2023, most of the rounds conducted have been for category-based draws Another particular thing to notice here is that most of them are held either on Wednesdays, Thursdays, or Tuesdays.

However, when you look at the rounds before the launch of the category-based draws, you can easily see that most of them were particularly held on Wednesdays. 

2022 Express Entry Draws

The rounds of invitations held in 2022 were either for Program-specific rounds or General rounds. Moreover, all of these rounds were strictly held every second Wednesday. 

2022-Express-Entry-Draws

2021 Express Entry Draws

2021-Express-Entry-Draws

On 13 Feb 2021, IRCC conducted its biggest draw ever. Only from the Canadian Experience Class, 27,332 candidates were invited, that too, on the lowest CRS cut-off ever (75 points).

IRCC used to (almost) routinely conduct a draw on Wednesday, once every two weeks. From 22 December 2021 (#212 Draw) to 23 November 2022 (#236 Draw), IRCC continuously held Express Entry draws every other Wednesday. This streak was continued for 25 rounds of Express Entry draws. 

Hence, you can see that the difference between how draws are held over time has been drastic. However, don’t forget that it is just an expert’s analysis and no official prediction. 

Most draws conducted in 2021 were for the Provincial Nominee Program round of CEC. 

2020 Express Entry Draws

2020-Express-Entry-Draws


Even though the draws were not conducted regularly on a 14-day gap, all of them were strictly held on a Wednesday or Thursday (excluding the one draw held on 23 March 2020, Monday). 

2019 Express Entry Draws


Except for the three instances where IRCC conducted draws on a Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday, all the other rounds were conducted on Wednesdays. Moreover, the draws were fairly regular.

In terms of rounds, all the draws were No Program Specified, except for the one held on 15 May 2019 for the Federal Skilled Trades program. 

2018 Express Entry Draws


In 2018, IRCC held most of the draws on Wednesdays. Only four instances saw a draw held on a Monday.

Except for two instances where IRCC invited candidates only from the Federal Skilled Trades program, and another where ITAs were issued only for PNP candidates, all the other rounds were General.

The PNP draw held on 30 May 2018 issued just 200 ITAs however, it was the only time when the CRS cut-off was off the charts (902 points). 

2017 Express Entry Draws

2017-Express-Entry-Draws


Out of the 30 rounds of draws conducted in 2017, 3 were held on Fridays and 1 on a Thursday, while all the others on Wednesdays.

Similarly, all the types of rounds were General, excluding the two for PNP and two for FSTP. 

2016 Express Entry Draws

2016-Express-Entry-Draws


IRCC held a single PNP-specific Express Entry draw in 2016 while the others were No Program Specified. Though the rounds were mostly regularly held every second Wednesday, with a few exemptions. Twice the draws were conducted on a Friday and once on a Thursday.  

2015 Express Entry Draws

2015-Express-Entry-Draws


IRCC started conducting Express Entry draws on 31 January 2015 and only held a single CEC draw in that year. After that, all the other draws were No Program Specified, and mostly held on Fridays.

Only twice ever did IRCC conduct a draw on Saturdays. In 2015, there was a draw on a Tuesday as well. Since it was the first year of Express Entry draws, it is understandable that IRCC was not really following any pattern at that time. 

How IRCC holds EE draws

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is the Canadian government’s department that deals with immigration and citizenship-related matters. All the PR and citizenship applications are naturally handled by IRCC. 

Express Entry is the online system managed by IRCC that invites skilled workers for permanent residence. Candidates are invited via Express Entry draws that are conducted by IRCC. These draws are hard to predict as times are changing and so is the demand to invite candidates.

Tips To Be Ready For The Next EE Draw

Here are some tips to get yourself ready for the next Express Entry draw:

  • Keep Your Profile Updated
  • Improve Your CRS Score
  • Ensure Your Language Tests are Still Valid

Keep Your Profile Updated

It is quite important to keep your Express Entry profile updated with your situation. You need to update your profile if:

  • you are starting a new career
  • there are any changes in the NOC code or designation of primary occupation
  • you are taking a new language test or there’s a change in language test score
  • you are gaining a new job offer or losing one
  • there’s any change in marital status
  • you are having or adopting a new child or any addition of family member
  • you got a Provincial Nomination
  • there have been academic changes

If you fail to update your profile and IRCC finds that you have provided the wrong information, they can refuse your application, ban you from coming to Canada for the next 5 years, and find you inadmissible. 

Hence, as soon as any such circumstance occurs in your life, make sure to update your profile as well. 

Improve Your CRS Score

If you have been in the Express Entry pool for quite some time, you might want to improve your CRS score. By improving your score, you are increasing your chances of being invited. 

To increase your CRS score, try:

  1. being nominated by a province or territory 
  2. getting a valid job offer
  3. gaining higher education
  4. improving your language skills
  5. gaining work experience
  6. Taking a language test for a second official language
  7. Learning French (it will make you eligible for category-based draws)

Ensure Your Language Tests are Still Valid

Any language test is valid for 2 years from the date they are issued. Whether you took IELTS, CELPIP, PTE Core, TEF Canada, or TEF Canada, the validity period is still the same. 

When you are applying for PR, your test results must still be valid or the application will be rejected. In case your results are expired, take another test. 

Additional Helpful measures:

  1. Your paperwork should be done at the right time
  2. Your ECA should be valid at the time of use
  3. You may take a second official language test as it will improve your CRS score
  4. Apply to get a provincial nomination. Getting a nomination gives you an additional 600 CRS points which almost guarantees an ITA. 
  5. If you are still stuck, get help from a CICC-approved immigration representative or certified immigration consultant. 

What if you don’t receive an ITA?

If you did not receive an ITA, use the following tips:

  • It is best to consult your case with an immigration consultant in this situation. They will let you know how you can improve your CRS score according to your situation. 
  • Did you know that Express Entry is not the only way for you to get Canada PR? There are many other immigration programs available and an immigration consultant can help you determine the best one possible according to your skills, work experience, education, etc. 

How TCWW Can Help You?

Talent Connected Worldwide is one of the very few CICC-certified immigration consultants in India. We are also an award-winning company that has been in this industry for the last 15 years. Since we began our journey, we have aimed to help as many clients as possible. So far, over twenty-three thousand clients have benefited from our services. 

We can help you increase your chances of being invited via Express Entry draws. Give us a call and let’s get your journey started. 

Remember to fill out the form below for some insights and advice from our experts! 

Niyati Chaurasia

Niyati Chaurasia

Niyati’s specialty lies in Canadian immigration matters along with crafting helpful, user-oriented content.

Articles: 726

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *